Introduction
As of July 15, 2025, BigBear ai stock trades at approximately $7.12, boasting a market capitalization of around $2.02 billion. Investors are drawn to this AI stock due to its strategic role in high-stakes sectors and its partnerships with major government agencies, including the U.S. Department of Defense.
Company Overview
BigBear ai, founded in 1998, has carved a niche in the AI and analytics landscape. Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, the company specializes in AI-powered decision intelligence, offering solutions like predictive analytics, computer vision, and real-time data processing. Its primary clients include U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, as well as sectors like logistics, supply chain management, and border security. BigBear ai technology enables rapid, data-driven decisions in complex environments, making it a trusted partner for mission-critical operations.
Financial Performance
BigBear ai financial performance offers a mixed picture for investors evaluating its stock. As of July 15, 2025, the stock price stands at $7.12, with a 52-week range of $1.16 to $10.36, reflecting significant volatility. The company’s market capitalization is approximately $2.02 billion, underscoring its mid-cap status in the AI sector. In Q1 2025, BigBear ai reported revenue of $34.8 million, a 5% increase from $33.1 million in Q1 2024, driven by contracts with the Department of Homeland Security and digital identity initiatives. The gross margin improved slightly to 21.3% from 21.1%.
| Metric | Q1 2025 Value | Q1 2024 Value | Notes |
| Revenue | $34.8 million | $33.1 million | Increased 5% year-over-year, driven by DHS and Digital Identity awards. |
| Gross Margin | 21.3% | 21.1% | Slight improvement. |
| Net Loss | $62.0 million | $127.8 million | Improved due to no goodwill impairment in 2025. |
| Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA | $(7.0) million | $(1.6) million | Impacted by increased R&D and SG&A expenses. |
| Cash Balance | $107.6 million | N/A | As of March 31, 2025. |
| Ending Backlog | $385 million | N/A | Strong pipeline as of March 31, 2025. |
Analyst Opinions
Analyst sentiment on BigBear ai stock is cautiously optimistic, reflecting its potential and challenges. MarketBeat reports a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on four analysts, with two Buy and two Hold ratings. The average price target is $6.33, suggesting a potential 8.5% downside from the current $7.12 price. The high target is $9.00, while the low is $4.00. TipRanks echoes this, with a Moderate Buy rating and a $5.38 average price target, implying a 27% downside. One analyst maintains a Neutral stance, citing concerns about profitability and shareholder dilution.
| Analyst Metric | Details |
| Consensus Rating | Moderate Buy |
| Average Price Target | $6.33 (MarketBeat), $5.38 (TipRanks) |
| Number of Analysts | 4 (MarketBeat), 5 (TipRanks: 2 Buy, 3 Hold) |
| High Price Target | $9.00 |
| Low Price Target | $4.00 |
| Potential Upside/Downside | -8.5% (MarketBeat), -27% (TipRanks) |
| TipRanks Smart Score | 6/10 (In line with market performance) |
Market Position and Competition
BigBear ai operates in the rapidly growing AI market, with a focus on defense and national security applications. The global AI market is projected to expand significantly, driven by demand for advanced analytics and decision-making tools in high-stakes sectors. BigBear ai competitors include Palantir Technologies, C3.ai, and Anduril Industries, all vying for dominance in defense AI. BigBear ai stands out through its deep ties to U.S. government agencies and its expertise in mission-critical operations. Its solutions, such as AI-driven forecasting and biometric processing, cater to specific needs in defense, intelligence, and infrastructure.
Recent News and Developments
BigBear ai has made strides in expanding its footprint, boosting interest in its stock. The company announced a strategic partnership with Easy Lease and Vigilix in the United Arab Emirates in June 2025 with the goal of improving supply chain and logistics solutions. This move signals BigBear ai ambition to grow internationally. It demonstrated its value in military applications by showcasing AI-driven forecasting and sentiment analysis at the Project Convergence – Capstone 5 Experiment in July 2025. In addition, BigBear ai strengthened its role in vital infrastructure by implementing cutting-edge biometric technology for passenger processing at major U.S. and international airports.
Risks and Challenges
Investing in BigBear ai stock carries notable risks. The company’s lack of profitability, with a negative $7.0 million Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025, raises concerns about its financial health. Its reliance on government contracts, while a strength, exposes it to risks from shifts in federal budgets or priorities. For example, a potential U.S. government shutdown in 2025 could disrupt revenue streams.
Conclusion
BigBear ai stock offers a compelling yet complex opportunity for investors. Its leadership in defense AI and national security AI, coupled with a robust $385 million backlog, positions it for growth in a booming market. Recent partnerships and technological advancements, such as biometric deployments and UAE collaborations, underscore its potential.
Note: This analysis is based on information available as of July 15, 2025. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
FAQs
What is BigBear ai current stock price?
As of July 15, 2025, BigBear ai stock trades at approximately $7.12.
What is BigBear ai market capitalization?
The company’s market cap is around $2.02 billion.
Is BigBear ai profitable?
No, BigBear ai is not profitable, reporting a $62.0 million net loss and negative $7.0 million Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2025.
What is the consensus analyst rating for BigBear ai stock?
The consensus rating is Moderate Buy, with an average price target of $6.33.
What are the main risks associated with investing in BigBear ai?
Risks include lack of profitability, reliance on government contracts, high debt, shareholder dilution, and intense competition in the AI market.
Citations:
- Yahoo Finance
- CNBC
- BigBear ai Investor Relations
- BusinessWire
- TipRanks
- MarketBeat